ComputerHunter.org |
|
|
|||
|
 |
Expected Value in Texas Holdem Poker
A successful Texas hold em player is one who maximizes his return or minimizes his loss with each decision he makes. Expected value (EV) is essentially the amount one would expect to win or lose if this decision were to be repeated millions of times. (rememer your precalculus "limit as n goes to infinity"??? didn't think so!) Every poker decision, whether it be to bet, raise, check/call, check/fold, check/raise has an expectation of success or failure. Those that will lose you money in the long run are said to have negative expected value (-EV). Folding always has an expected value of zero. You will never gain or lose money by folding. Folding, though it has an EV of zero, may often be your best decision from an EV perspective. Let's look at a few examples. Expected value is not always easily calculable, even in limit texas holdem, but every time you play you should try to analyze your decisionmaking with EV in your mind. For instance, you're playing 1/2 and in the small blind with 84o on a flop of K96 rainbow. The small blind checks and only you and a tight player are left. There is three dollars in the pot. Should you bet? You are risking one dollar. Betting has a positive expectation if you can expect the other two to fold more than one in four times. If you try it four times and it succeeds once, you win a three dollar pot and lose your one dollar bet the three other times, making it a 0 EV play. (We're discounting the chance that you are called and catch runner runner or win in some other very unlikely way) Remember, we analyze each decision on its own Expected Value merits. If you are called and catch an 8 on the turn, you must again analyze your decisions based on their likelihood of success or failure in the long run. Poker, and Texas Holdem in particular, is a game of short term variations, but you must continue to make the correct EV decisions and you will be a winner in the long term. Another example: You are holding A8 of spades, again playing 1/2. There are 3 limpers ahead of you and one behind you. The flop comes K96 with two spades. The first player bets and the other two in front of you call...you should raise! As we've seen in the Poker Odds section, you have about a 35 percent chance of hitting your flush. You will not win each time you hit it...perhaps someone has flopped a set or two pair and will hit a full house, etc. You may even occasionally win if you spike an Ace. Anyway, it is pretty clear that your odds of winning the hand are better than 25 percent, and with 3 players in the pot ahead of you, you want to get more money in the pot while you have an advantage from an expected value standpoint. Now, there are other factors that will enter your head and should be taken into account. If the original bettor reraises you and the other two fold, you've now put 2 dollars in and gotten the others to put 6 in. Now we may or may not be in positive EV territory, depending on what our opponent has. Also, we must consider the fact that our raise may have bought us a free card or may have gotten someone with an Ace and a better kicker or paired side card to fold. As you can see, there are many factors influencing the expected value of our decisions. We may not always be sure we've made the correct poker play, but it's extremely important that our thinking process runs along these lines. Even preflop you must think along expected value lines. You may be holding AJs in the small blind. Six players, most of them very loose, limp before you. A raise is in order. Think in terms of expected value or pot equity. Your hand figures to win more than one in every seven times against the starting hands held by the others, so a raise is in order. Again, evaluate each decision on its own merits. If you miss the flop in this instance, checking and folding may be your best option from an EV standpoint. Or, it may not...you may have an overcard, gutshot and back door flush draw...again, do the math in your head and arrive at the correct decision. Finally, remember this...in general, a bet has a higher EV than a check/call. You will sometimes win by forcing people to fold. Now, there are times when this is not correct due to the threat of a raise (if you're planning on calling), but always bear it in mind. In Texas Holdem, aggressive poker is winning poker. Greg Dwyer is a professional online poker player. His poker strategy websites can be found at http://www.HitTheFlop.com and http://www.pokercentral.us
Google News - Top Stories
|
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Texas Holdem Poker Legends Stu Ungar is considered by most to the greatest No Limit Texas Holdem Poker player ever. The Secrets of Laying the Fives and Nines Pssst...! Wanna know a secret? Building Your Bankroll The first thing one needs to do before they even think about laying a bet down is: set your bankroll before the season even begins. You have to know how much money you are going to start with. To clarify what a bankroll is, it's the total amount you have saved up, put in dresser and so on, and can afford to lose and not effect the way you eat, sleep, live, etc? Why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in Soccer Betting Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make everyday throughout the Soccer season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in soccer betting. Here are 5 reasons why you should pay special attention to the dogs every season. Semi Bluffing Bluffing is an important part of most poker player's games. Knowing when and how to bluff will dramatically increase your win percentages. Semi-bluffing is an extra weapon for your Texas Holdem poker armoury. Slot Machines - The Basics Slot machines are by far the easiest - and one of the most fun - games in the casino to play. Simply insert your coin and pull the handle. One of the oldest jokes in the world is to call slot machines "one armed bandits" because - with some of the highest odds against you in the casino, that is exactly what they were - and still are! However, it's now more appropriate to simply call them bandits, because you don't have to pull the handle anymore - just push a button. Electrical motors and computer chips do everything else. Four Tips for Online Poker ? Tells, Mixing it Up, Preflop Rasies and Changing Gears Tip One: Mix Up Your Play: Once you have mastered the fundamentals of a particular game (for the purpose of this article we'll use No Limit Texas Hold'em) it's very easy to lapse into predictable play. This is particularly true when playing online. While live casinos are literally designed to keep people involved and stimulated, your home or office most likely has the opposite effect-which can lead to just "playing by the book." If you find yourself playing robotically: failing to adjust your play to the table, failing to notice the tendencies of each player, making moves without asking yourself "what am I trying to accomplish?", then it may be time to tweak your game a bit. Instead of waiting for Queens, Kings or Aces, raise with a 7/2! Not only will it help get you out of your funk, but it'll also keep your opponents off balance. Tip Two: Online tells: The most reliable tells in online poker revolve around betting speed. The easiest ones to pick up are the "dramatic pause" tells. A long pause followed by a bet usually means the player is strong and wants you to think he is weak. A long pause followed by a check usually indicates a weak hand. This player either wants you to check so he can get a free card, or wants you to think he has a strong enough hand to "think" about betting. You'll rarely be check-raised by anyone who took a long time to check, it's not a normal betting pattern. When check-raising most players want everything to look as normal as possible to help make sure you'll put in a bet before they spring the trap. If you do get a check-raise from a player who paused heavily before the original check, be very careful. You should also watch for instantaneous bets and raises on the turn and river. This usually indicates a powerhouse hand and an attempt to get you to call by intimidating you into it. Tip Three: Limpin' Ain't Easy: Although this applies to both live and online play, we see it so often in online poker games that it had to be included: don't limp when you're the first to enter a pot! The logic behind this tip us that since you have no money involved in the pot, if you fold you lose nothing. Therefore, if you're going call you had better have a hand that expects to earn money-and if your hand is a favorite, you should raise. In addition, you will also stop giving away valuable information about the hands you are playing (astute players will quickly divide your holdings into raising and calling hands). By raising every time you enter a pot, you reveal the minimum amount of information possible. (It should also be noted that in Hold'em there a number of hands that are not worth a call, but are worth a raise-however, that's another article.) In short, the best way to think about this rule is that if a hand is not strong enough to raise with, it is not strong enough to call with. Of course, in poker, there is an exception to every rule. If for instance, you're holding Aces and you know that the maniac to your left will raise if you limp in, then by all means, limp away. However, this play is a much more advanced move and you had better know what you're doing before you try it. Not only do you risk wasting a big pocket pair, but you may easily end up going broke if your opponent limps behind you and makes two pair on the flop with a K,5. Tip Four: Short-Handed Play: Most likely, a good number of the tournaments you'll be playing online will be Sit-and-Go's (9-handed games that begin as soon as 9 players signup to play.) When playing Sit-and-Go's you'll inevitably be faced with short-handed play (or at least you hope you will be). When playing short-handed, aggression is key. I'm sure you've seen it before: the game gets down to three or four players and suddenly the guy on your right is going nuts! He's raising, re-raising, and completely dominating the game. To the beginner, or to those inexperienced in short-handed play, this wild-man appears to have just thrown caution to the wind. He finally shows down a hand and he's holding K,9! However, he probably won the hand-and he probably stole a bunch o' blinds before that. So what's his trick? Aggression. A complete poker player must learn to play a solid aggressive game. It's simply not enough to sit back and wait for good cards during 9/10 handed play, only to fall apart when you're close to the big money spots. For example, have you seen T.J. Cloutier at a final table? He's about as tight as they come until he reaches short-handed play. That's when he comes out firing. He does this because he knows that if he doesn't, someone will-and then it'll be him getting run over and not the other way around. I know this tip may make you a little uncomfortable if you're generally a tight player-but believe me, once you learn to enjoy short-handed play it's probably the most fun you'll have a poker table. Poker Tournaments Most people believe that poker tournaments are for the most experienced and most aggressive poker players. But this is simply just not true. There are actually many more low-limit tournaments (that attract beginners mostly) than high stakes tournaments. Bingo Basics Bingo is one of the most simple and general game of all times. Be it children's party, classrooms, charity functions or a simple time pass, Bingo finds it place everywhere. How YOU can Regress the Six and Eight! The Crapshooter Online Gambling Online gambling is hot. In fact there are websites popping up everywhere with new gambling options. Living near a gambling casino is no longer important if for individuals who wish to gamble a lot of money or just a little. You can feel safe in most of these places as well. And, with all of this comes the convenience of being at home or at your office. No need to fly to a remote destination in order to play a couple of games of blackjack. Online gambling is everywhere. Online gambling is fast becoming a hot commodity as well. How to Win a Million Dollars Without Spending a Lot of Money I love Major Millions. And realistically speaking, there's not really a "strategy" for playing any slot machine game. But there are bankroll strategies that can keep you entertained and still give you an opportunity to win big playing the internet's biggest progressive jackpot game. That's what this page is about. Craps 101: What You Need to Know About Alternatively called as Hazard, Craps has been here since centuries. Now the game has been brought to the visitor's PC. Being rated as one with the most odds, craps has been a popular bet among gamers. The game is full of tricks and one needs to come up to a great experience level to actually win at the game. The basic rules of the craps is that the roll of the set of dice that results in a combines 2, 3 or 12 will loose the game for you. A 7 or 11 is a game winner and thus the gamers are seen loud around the table. The bet is placed on the table with different numbers and chip combinations. The dice must bounce back from the wall of the table is another basic rule of the game. Beating The NFL: A Guide To Smart Sports Betting. Well folks, here we are. It's August 13 as I write this, and the start of the official NFL season is but a mere four weeks away. If you're like millions of Americans, you're probably counting the days until the season starts for two reasons. One, you want to see if your team is finally going to make a playoff run (my team is the Lions, so playoff football isn't something I'm really concerned about), and two, you can't wait to start losing your shirt betting on football. Play Online Baccarat Game Baccarat - the game of the rich and famous - the game of high-flyers, Hollywood stars and oil barons! Online Gambling Basics Poker, black jack or any other casino game with a real fancy name, any lay man acquainted with the web knows that these are only a click away. Online gambling industry today is one with the highest growth rate. However which site to choose is definitely the biggest problem that one faces when seriously thinking about gambling online. With sites by the dozen offering "online gambling" there are other hundred offering you to start your own site, the scene can get a lot confusing. What is the True Winning Percentage of a Professional Soccer-punter? Many people believe professional-level sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. It's understandable that people think that, but it's just not true. The fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by losers is relatively very small. Roulette - How to Bet Betting is very simple in roulette if you follow these simple rules. Poker on TV Poker on TV has been the catalyst that allows millions of people to view real poker being played by today's young guns and poker legends. A day does not go by without advertising for another Texas Hold'Em TV poker scheduled event for cable or television. It is becoming the basis for corporate investment in a growing industry and a motivation for players to enter numerous tournaments that offer millions of dollars. Software is being developed for hand held devices and cell phones to play poker. Deals are being made to broadcast live tournaments over the Internet from land based casinos. Roulette basics James bond plays it and so does a large part of America. A table a wheel which has about 37-38 pockets many pockets where the ball must land after it is spun by the croupier. The scene is really common at the casino setups across America. The players with high adrenaline pumping and high risk bearing capacity are expected to be seen around the roulette table trying their luck with spinning dolly. The croupier, or the dealer representing the house, takes the wagers and pays out all bets at the table. The croupier has no personal stake in the roulette game. The game has seen its popularity grow due to the reason that as the wheel slows down the people are more and more betting on the numbers.
|
|
|
|
|
