ComputerHunter.org |
|
|
|||
|
 |
Global Markets: A Window on the World Economy
Expectations drive the market. Every stock price is driven by what people expect the company to do. That's why all the talk about a strong or weak economy has such an impact. But those aren't the only expectations moving us. We've seen the impact of war and terrorism worries on markets and the impact of SARS concerns on Asian markets. Markets move on a combination of expectations and reality, and every reality leads us to new expectations. Great earnings? I expect the company will earn more. A sales slump? I expect the company to struggle next year too. The question is: if all decisions are made on expectations (and they are), how can things turn around? If our expectations are so colored by past events, we'll expect the future to be as grim as the past, and nothing can ever change, can it? Ah, but we have long memories. Ask yourself: what would it take for you to change your outlook? What would it take for all of us to change our outlook? The answer to that last question effectively tells us when the market will turn, because when everyone is upbeat and buying, the market will fly. Consistently rising earnings will change expectations, but how much positive news is necessary before the turn begins? Will some companies turn before the market? Consider Constellation Brands or Fortune Brands, two of our recommendations that haven't seen any drops, and in fact are defying estimates of weakness. Should we expect those shares to rise based upon their own positive trends, or will the market turn first? The answers aren't simple or uniform. There's no answer, only conjecture. We can make estimations. In the past, we've seen market turnarounds led by small stocks or led by big stocks, led by technology, or led by consumer goods. So, as we near the turn, you'll likely hear all kinds of suggestions for where the upturn will begin. Preserve your sanity with a little skepticism. I suspect the first to turn will be the ones that have had the best results for a long time. That's precisely why we're so aggressive in our recommendations of companies like Fortune and Constellation. If they are successful in maintaining their records, this type of firm will rise sooner than the rest. It doesn't matter whether the companies are big or small, techie or traditional. The best companies will start the upward move. Without support from a strengthening economy and a rising market, even these success stories can't rise far. That's why expectations of the broader economy are important. That's where we'll have to wait and see. Expectations should rise now with the ending war (with stock prices and consumer spending following). Expect some good news for a while. Surprises from companies like McDonald's will also provide a boost. Surprises shake people out of expectation ruts. When we've become too negative (or too positive), a shock can wake us up to the change. Let's hope that McDonald's profit boost is a harbinger of things to come. While the longer term still holds some uncertainty, there is hope. Success is largely a matter of recognizing expectations, and following through when we see an opening. For the moment, at least, there appears to be an opening. We don't know yet what the future holds, but the present looks good. To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson's Investment Advisor Services, visit http://www.valueview.net Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor's Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.
Google News - Top Stories
|
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Delist My Corporation Please It use to be said that once a company was de-listed from the NASDAQ it was the kiss of death, not so any more. With Sarbanes Oxley and all the insane reporting requirements it might save your company from incessant lawsuits from investors and the government regulators who are out to destroy free enterprise. Many small NASQAQ companies have spent over $100,000 initially to set up the controls for accounting compliance of Sarbanes Oxley and now the ongoing scrutiny for transparency runs a good 1-3% of gross sales. But that is not the kicker; the real problem is when company executives make decisions for the regulator over sight compliance and what is best to keep the company out of trouble or from receiving a letter from Elliot Spitzer or the SEC. Once that happens the stock price tumbles and once in the sites of a regulator they are going to have to find something to prove self worth, even if they have to lie a little or fudge their investigation to make something up. Which is all to common as any insider will tell you. The Key Ingredient To Increase Preconstruction Profits By Over $20,000 One of the greatest preconstruction investing issues that I hear from individual investors is that they can't get access to what they believe are good projects. Regardless if the preconstruction project is a beach condo, a townhouse, a single family home, or even land investment, individuals are finding that many restrictions are being placed on them by developers. In addition, prices are continuing to runaway. So given all this, how is an individual investor supposed to excel in this environment? Read on and find out! The Convertible Craze Brightens The Future Of Equities Convertibles are stealing the show with their safe investment image in today's "protective" market. They seem to be overshadowing the stocks and bonds, and this holds true for the mediocre issuers. Exchange Traded Funds They call 'em ETFs. Advice for International Investors on How to Safeguard Their Profits What are the risks? Waiting 20 Years Can Cost You Millions - Dont Wait Start Today Many Young people live for Today. They really don't fully understand the power of compound interest. The Difference between investing as little as $20 a week at age 20 or waiting until age 50 can be over $3,000,000 (yes 3 Million). Don't wait start today! Chinas Great Missed Opportunity While a U.S. Representative to the Asian Development Bank Executive Board of Directors during the first Bush Administration, I consistently called for China to "bite the bullet" and privatize its state-owned companies as soon as possible. Representatives from European and other Asian countries would just shake their heads and mutter about impatient Americans while counseling that China adopt a slow, incremental approach to privatization. Investing in World Markets There are many different ways to invest in world markets: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, options, commodities or currencies. Sometimes people refer to these options as investment vehicles (or method of investment). Some of these vehicles may fit your personal characteristics or lifestyle better than others. The point is that no matter the method you choose to invest, the goal is always to put your money to work so it earns you a profit. Even though this is a simple idea, it is the most important idea you should understand. Before You Start Investing There maybe several reasons why you to want to invest your money. You may want to retire early, want to build your own business in the future, or to pay for your kid's education. Should everyone start investing outside their retirement accounts right away? The answer to this question is that it depends on your financial situation. First, you must have a basic understanding in financial management. What would happen if you lose your job, accumulate large medical expenses, or losing money on your investments? Do you still have money to pay your bills? Do you have to sell your investments that you have worked so hard for, with a loss? No one knows what the future will bring. Therefore, you must have a safety net to fall back on in an unexpected event. This article contains 5 concepts that you should follow before you start investing outside of your retirement accounts. Pros & Cons of Investing in Bonds What are Bonds? California Deparment of Corporations and Franchise Opportunities Law What CA Needs To Do To Address Issues in Franchising Better Investing Made Easy If there were one piece of advice that an investor could ask for, the question would probably be something like "What do I need to do to invest better?" Better investing choices are sought by investors every day. Some find them and succeed, others do not. The difference clearly lies in better investing, so investors are on the right track. They are, however, asking the wrong questions. The Biggest Oil Opportunity in the World ? And How You Can Profit From It Where is the second biggest deposit of oil reserves in the world? Profitability And Stock Turn Rate The inventory of the typical store represents the largest single element of its total assets. The sale of goods from this inventory is the merchant's chief source of operating profit. Thus, the way in which this merchandise investment is put to work is of utmost importance in achieving a profitable operation. Trading Expert Discovers Ways To Beat Stock Market Odds With Money Management The first point to mastering money management is that you have to understand when you're trading on the stock market is that you are playing the odds ? but unlike many forms of gambling, you can make money. The key to making this money is to respect the risk that is part of the market, and manage it. Money management is a set of rules and guidelines that enables you to turn a profit. By being triumphant with your money management skills, you can keep your risk at a level at which you're comfortable with, keep from making poor trading decisions, and ensure you don't loose your trading capital. This is why it is so important to follow money management rules. Investing and Understanding What You Buy "There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action!" Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749 - 1832) Is Starting A Business For Me? What To Consider Before Starting A Business Do you have the right temperament? The Realities Of Market Timing Market timing systems are based on patterns of activity in the past. Every system that you are likely to hear about works well when it is applied to historical data. If it didn't work historically, you would never hear about it. But patterns change, and the future is always the great unknown. Powerful Hidden Techniques Mystery Formula - The Covered Call Option Trading Buy-Write Strategy For better or worse, most option trading investors purchase stocks with the intent of holding their shares for an extended period of time. Finding the Perfect Company The perfect company - it's the holy grail of the investment world. The company that will make its initial investment hundreds of times over. It's what everyone shoots for. To have bought Microsoft when it first went public... It's how fortunes are made. What does make "the perfect company"?
|
|
|
|
|
